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Contrary Football Betting Wisdom

Sometimes what you think you know can get in the way of discovering the truth. Consider what is by many to be sacrosanct wisdom in the sports betting world. This so-called know how is referred to as the ‘wisdom of crowds’. According to this theory, a lot of people acting in their own can be used to predict the outcome of sports events.

Except, the reality turns out to be not quite so cut and dry. To look at this from a researcher’s perspective, a team setup an investigation to examine the accuracy of the crowd’s predictions. In terms of sports betting, these researchers used the point spread betting market.

You see, point spreads are considered very accurate. More importantly, point spread betting is an often used example to explain how crowd wisdom actually works in predicting the outcome of upcoming sporting events. Except for one inconvenient truth. The researchers noted that the crowd is in fact wrong in many cases.

The researchers, Joseph Simmons (Yale), Leif Nelson (UC Berkley), Jeff Galak (Carnegie Mellon) and Shane Frederick (Yale) set up a special investigative analysis of a season long NFL football fans selected throughout the United States. The researchers tested a few hypotheses to see how their ‘crowd’ performed.

First, they set up their study to see if their study participants would correctly choose the underdogs against spreads that disadvantaged the favorites. As a group, the bettors failed this test miserably, choosing more favorites than the underdogs.

The researchers then checked to see if warning the bettors that the spreads had been increased changed their betting behavior. Sadly, the bettors did not fare much better.

The researchers concluded a startling fact. The study participants relied almost entirely on their intuition. The reliance on intuition even trumped what these sports bettors actually knew to be true, that is that the favorite will typically lose against the spread.

It gets worse. The researchers noted that people seem to have a difficult time learning from their mistakes. They watched as the sports bettors kept repeating exactly the same errors over and over again. In terms of the stated purpose of this examination, the researchers conclude that the crowd’s predictions actually worsened over time.

So what’s your take away here? Consider the findings these researchers uncovered. Are you perhaps relying a bit too much on intuition and ignoring the facts staring you in the face?

Hey, doesn’t it seem like anybody and everybody throws up a Do This list to make the most money with your sports betting? How about another take on this? How about if we approach this from the other side of the table? If you think about it, even for a little bit, you will quickly realize that sometimes the opposite approach is exactly what you need to see the true picture.

With that in mind, let’s go ahead and jump right in here. Start with the most basics of basics, the ground floor of sports betting wisdom, if you will. Don’t lose sight of the fact that any type of sports betting, whether it’s with the guys at work or at any of the numerous online sports books that are available, is a form of gambling.

Gambling in and of itself is neither good nor bad. It’s only ever about you and how you act. Which brings us right up to the very next Don’t on our list. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. You see, the weird thing about online sports bets is that you aren’t actually handling the money. So, if you aren’t careful, you may in fact lose sight of the fact that you are placing bets with money you had to work for. In other words, you are putting your hard earned money on the line, so don’t spend more than you would if you were out at the track.

Incidentally, that brings yet another Don’t into play. Really, this is related to the last don’t, but it’s a bit more dangerous. Here it is: Don’t max out on your credit cards to place an online sports bet. The last place you want to end up is with a credit card bill for a bet that went the wrong way.

Moving right along, another don’t involves your sports betting strategy (or the lack thereof). In this case, Don’t bet higher percentages on sports bets you happen to “like” more than other options. Follow your regular sports betting strategy (you do have a sports betting strategy, right?). Keep in mind that patience and discipline really do pay off in the long run.

As you can see, sports betting is about knowing what to do and what not to do. Of course, knowing is only the beginning, from there you have to act on what you know. Now you know the list of the most common sports betting Don’ts, Visit go ahead and put these on your action list.

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